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USA - Market Intelligence Report

Market Intelligence Reports provide an invaluable mix of vital market data and background information, including telecoms regulation.
Published: May 2007
Pages: 106

In the United States, recent years have seen a significant degree of consolidation amongst operators. Three former regional Bell operating companies (RBOCs) now survive from the original seven that were created in 1984 following the break-up of AT&T. Indeed, even AT&T itself no longer exists in its traditional form, having been bought up by one of its offspring.

Increased competition and falling demand for core services has prompted further consolidation in the local exchange carrier (ILEC), long-distance, and wireless communications markets. Since 2005, Sprint has merged with Nextel and mopped up many of its affiliates and partner operations before spinning-off its ILEC fixed-line business to its shareholders. Meanwhile, ALLTEL first merged with Western Wireless then acquired Midwestern Wireless before also spinning-off its ILEC fixed-line business to its shareholders. AT&T was acquired by SBC Communications and 'new' AT&T then acquired RBOC BellSouth at the end of 2006. Long-distance operator MCI was acquired by Verizon Communications early in 2006. Citizens Communications has recently completed the purchase of Pennsylvania-based ILEC Commonwealth Telephone Enterprises (CTC). In December 2005, Level 3 Communications acquired WilTel Communications, before going on to buy Progress Telecom, ICG Communications, TelCove, Looking Glass Networks, and Broadwing Corporation in 2006.

Amid these multi-million-dollar transactions, RBOC Qwest Communications has remained untouched, though it briefly contested Verizon's purchase of MCI before conceding defeat. Qwest has signalled its intent to be an active participant in the consolidation process, but has yet to make any significant acquisitions. With a diminishing fixed-line customer base (only partially offset by growth in its broadband segment), Qwest increasingly seems likely to be netted by either one of its peers or by one or more of its smaller rivals. If neither event transpires, Qwest may be forced to break itself up, divesting its troublesome fixed-line business in much the same way that ALLTEL and Sprint Nextel realigned their operations in 2006.

The disaffection with traditional fixed-line operations is not restricted to those operators struggling to achieve forward momentum. Even giants such as Verizon Communications are exploring ways of divesting these assets yet keeping arms' length control of the business, viz that company's recent partnership with FairPoint Communications. In the meantime, the race is on to roll-out advanced next-generation networks capable of delivering a mix of voice, data/Internet, and video services (so-called 'triple play' offerings), reflecting the growing threat posed by cable operators which are breaking into the telecommunications market with their cable-based Internet and telephony services. These next-generation networks take several forms, but are mainly based on IP technology. Sprint Nextel, however, is choosing to offer broadband wireless access services using the nascent WiMAX technology, to the concern of a number of vocal shareholders. In the WiMAX arena, Sprint Nextel is competing with new entrant Clearwire, backed by telecoms entrepreneur Craig McCaw.

The cellular and personal communications service (PCS) operators have also been deploying next-generation platforms that will allow them to offer a broader range of wireless voice, data, and video services to their customers. Starting with GSM and CDMA replacements of ageing analogue and TDMA-based networks, the main operators have elected to deploy networks based on CDMA2000 1X, EV-DO, GPRS, EDGE, and W-CDMA technologies. This is proving to be a costly exercise, as is the task of retaining customers and growing the use base as well as stimulating the take-up of value-added services, but recently-published figures show that churn rates and average revenues per user (ARPU) levels are demonstrating limited growth.

Leading the wireless market is AT&T Mobility (formerly Cingular Wireless), closely followed by Verizon Wireless. The market is expecting these companies to make some strategic purchases in order to widen or close the gap between them. Of the estimated 233.041 million subscribers in the US at the end of 2006, AT&T served 60.962 million (26.2%), while Verizon Wireless served 59.052 million (25.3%). Sprint Nextel was the third-largest player, with 53.100 million subscribers (22.8%) at the end of 2006, although this includes the subscribers of a number of affiliates and resellers. There was then a large gap between Sprint Nextel and the fourth-largest player, T-Mobile USA, which had 25.041 million subscribers (10.7%) at the end of 2006.

There continues to be many bankruptcies in the telecommunications sector, mostly affecting the ambitious new entrants who had promised to deliver the broadband revolution that the incumbents had already spent the best part of a decade skirting around until the right technology became available at the right price. In particular, the manufacturing sector was devastated by the virtual stand-still in orders for broadband equipment that accompanied the global economic slowdown and crash in the telecommunications market in the early-2000s. Many of the larger businesses were forced into closing down or selling off unprofitable or "non-core" operations and assets. The casualty list is high, but the overall effect has been to slim down an already over-crowded market and to focus knowledge and expertise in those companies remaining which are best able to take advantage of the resurgence in the sector. Cisco Systems has been a prolific acquirer and has bulked up its expertise and product range to the point where it can directly challenge major north American vendors such as Motorola, Nortel Networks, and Lucent Technologies for the key sales opportunities. A key purchase of Cisco has been Scientific-Atlanta, which gives it an inroad into the lucrative home networking market. In 2006, Lucent Technologies was acquired by its French rival, Alcatel SA, and is now known as Alcatel Lucent.


This Market Intelligence Report was produced as part of
Communications Markets Analysis (CMA).

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